Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services lowered its outlook on France’s AA credit rating to negative from stable Friday，casting doubt on the effectiveness of President Franois Hollande’s flagship policies and warning that public finances may deteriorate as economic growth disappoints.
標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾評(píng)級(jí)服務(wù)機(jī)構(gòu)10日將法國(guó)AA主權(quán)信用評(píng)級(jí)展望由穩(wěn)定下調(diào)至負(fù)面，對(duì)法國(guó)總統(tǒng)奧朗德的核心政策的有效性提出質(zhì)疑，并警告在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩的同時(shí)公共財(cái)政狀況可能惡化。(《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》)
“We believe that，due to policy implementation risk related to the budgetary consolidation and structural reforms，a recovery of the French economy could prove elusive and that France’s public finances might deteriorate beyond 2014，although this is not our base-case scenario，”it said in a statement.
“我們相信，因與鞏固預(yù)算和結(jié)構(gòu)性改革相關(guān)的政策實(shí)施可能存在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，法國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇前景不明，其公共財(cái)政在2014年之后可能惡化，盡管這并非我們的基本判斷，”標(biāo)普在聲明中表示。(路透社)
The change in the outlook comes as the French government itself acknowledges that weak economic growth has undermined its budget plans and the budget deficit will run higher than promised earlier this year.
此次標(biāo)普對(duì)法國(guó)評(píng)級(jí)展望作出調(diào)整，正值法國(guó)政府承認(rèn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)疲弱影響了預(yù)算方案、預(yù)算赤字將高于今年早些時(shí)候承諾的水平之時(shí)。(《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》)
Official figures from the Bank of France showed that the French economy did not grow at all in the second quarter，and for the third quarter it is forecasting growth of 0.2%.
法國(guó)央行的官方數(shù)據(jù)顯示，二季度法國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)零增長(zhǎng)，預(yù)計(jì)三季度將增長(zhǎng)0.2%。(英國(guó)廣播公司)
The French government confirmed at the start of the month that it would not cut its public deficit as fast as it had promised its EU partners due to weaker than expected growth and inflation. The government now expects the deficit to fall in line with an EU-mandated target of 3 percent of economic output in 2017 instead of 2015 as previously promised.
法國(guó)政府本月初證實(shí)，由于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和通脹水平不及預(yù)期，其將不會(huì)以此前向歐盟承諾的速度來(lái)削減公共財(cái)政赤字。目前，法國(guó)政府預(yù)計(jì)財(cái)政赤字將于2017年達(dá)到歐盟規(guī)定的占經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出的3%的目標(biāo)，而非此前承諾的2015年。(路透社)
S&P projects that the French government’s deficits will average 4.1% between 2014 and 2017—compared to 3.2% as of April this year—while economic growth will average just 1.2% during that same time frame，a growth projection that is 0.1% lower than their prior forecast.
根據(jù)標(biāo)普的預(yù)計(jì)，2014年至2017年間法國(guó)政府的財(cái)政赤字將平均占國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的4.1%，高于4月份預(yù)計(jì)的3.2%；同時(shí)期的平均經(jīng)濟(jì)增速將僅為1.2%，比此前預(yù)期的增速低0.1%。(《福布斯》)
The further deterioration of S&P’s assessment of France’s finances comes at a difficult moment for Mr. Hollande. With opinion polls showing he is the least popular president，the Socialist leader’s government faces opposition on all sides to his plans to repair public finances and buoy the economy after a prolonged period of stagnation.
標(biāo)普此次進(jìn)一步調(diào)低對(duì)法國(guó)財(cái)政狀況的評(píng)估，正值總統(tǒng)奧朗德的艱難時(shí)期。民意調(diào)查顯示，奧朗德為法國(guó)最不受歡迎的總統(tǒng)。在經(jīng)歷了漫長(zhǎng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)停滯期后，奧朗德領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的社會(huì)黨政府也面臨著各方對(duì)其修復(fù)公共財(cái)政、支撐經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展計(jì)劃的反對(duì)。(《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》)
S&P said that Mr. Hollande’s unpopularity and the vocal opposition to his fiscal and economic plans may slow down action on finances and liberalizing highly regulated areas of the economy. The country already lacks a strong record for carrying out painful reforms，the ratings firm noted.“We believe that implementation risks persist，”S&P said.
標(biāo)普表示，奧朗德的不得人心以及外界對(duì)其財(cái)政經(jīng)濟(jì)計(jì)劃的反對(duì)可能放慢財(cái)政措施的實(shí)行和對(duì)受到高端監(jiān)管的經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域的自由化進(jìn)程。該機(jī)構(gòu)稱，法國(guó)本身缺乏實(shí)施艱苦改革的傳統(tǒng)�！拔覀兿嘈耪邔�(shí)施的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)將持續(xù)，”標(biāo)普表示。(《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》)
French Finance Minister Michel Sapin reacted quickly to the move from S&P. In a statement，he said French debt remains one of the safest and most liquid investments in the world. He also said that France wouldn’t change its economic strategy.“The economic situation is weighing on our budget balances，but the government has decided to stick to its course，”Mr. Sapin said.
法國(guó)財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)米歇爾·薩班對(duì)標(biāo)普的行動(dòng)迅速作出了回應(yīng)。他在一份聲明中稱，法國(guó)債務(wù)仍將是世界上最安全和流動(dòng)性最高的投資之一，并稱政府不會(huì)改變經(jīng)濟(jì)戰(zhàn)略�！敖�(jīng)濟(jì)狀況給預(yù)算平衡帶來(lái)了壓力，但政府已決定堅(jiān)持既定路線，”薩班稱。(《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》)
S&P was the first of the three major ratings firms to strip France of the top triple-A rating in January 2012，just before Mr. Hollande came to office. Since then，both Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings have followed suit and S&P downgraded France again in November last year to AA from AA+.
2012年1月，就在奧朗德執(zhí)政前夕，標(biāo)普成為三大國(guó)際評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)中第一個(gè)下調(diào)法國(guó)3A評(píng)級(jí)的評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)。此后，穆迪和惠譽(yù)也紛紛下調(diào)法國(guó)評(píng)級(jí)。去年11月，標(biāo)普進(jìn)一步將法國(guó)評(píng)級(jí)由AA+下調(diào)至AA。(《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》)
